Abstract

Many oil and gas firms claim they are going green. But are they actually walking the talk? We analyze the political and economic behavior of publicly traded oil majors to understand the degree to which they are decarbonizing. We collect a wide range of firm-level data from 2004 to 2019, including a novel measurement of political behavior based on original coding of corporate earnings calls. Our analysis yields four main findings. First, firms’ political and economic behavior are not necessarily correlated, demonstrating the value of a two-pronged political economy approach to the study of multinational firms. Second, not a single firm is shifting away from fossil fuels during the time frame studied. Changes in business behavior have been relatively modest in scope. The most ambitious firms are engaging in hedging—mitigating risk through diversification rather than moving toward decarbonization. Third, major oil and gas firms meliorate anti-climate political positions between 2010 and 2018. Finally, firms with greater progress towards decarbonization tend to be located in or sell their products in jurisdictions with more stringent environmental regulation, have smaller refining sectors, and be involved in more industry coalitions.

摘要

许多石油和天然气公司声称他们正在走向绿色。但他们真的是在说到做到吗？我们分析上市石油巨头的政治和经济行为，以了解他们脱碳的程度。我们收集了 2004 年至 2019 年的广泛公司层面数据，包括基于公司财报电话原始编码的政治行为新衡量标准。我们的分析产生了四个主要发现。首先，企业的政治和经济行为不一定相关，这表明双管齐下的政治经济学方法对跨国公司研究的价值。其次，在所研究的时间范围内，没有一家公司正在放弃化石燃料。业务行为的变化范围相对较小。最雄心勃勃的公司正在从事对冲——通过多元化而不是转向脱碳来降低风险。第三，大型石油和天然气公司在 2010 年至 2018 年间改善了反气候政治立场。最后，在脱碳方面取得更大进展的公司往往位于或在环境监管更严格的司法管辖区销售其产品，炼油部门规模较小，并且参与更多的行业联盟。