Decision making in pest management is a challenging task. While pest dynamics are often quite uncertain, such decisions are often based on tenuous assumptions of certainty (economic injury levels and marginal utility approximations). To overcome such assumptions and adequately consider uncertainty, we apply decision analysis to evaluate management strategies used by farmers in the Colombian Caribbean against the boll weevil (BW). We represent the decision to protect the crop using partial budget analysis. This allows us to capture key properties of BW control strategies, while accounting for uncertainty about pest infestation pressure, control effectiveness and cotton yield and price. Our results indicate that proactive pest management is more efficient than reactive control given the current BW infestation pressure. However, farmers may prefer the reactive strategy, since they have experienced seasons with low infestation pressure where no insecticide applications were required. The proactive strategy, in contrast, requires scheduled pesticide applications in all years. Results show that in seasons with high infestation pressure the expected revenues of the reactive strategy tend to decrease, mainly because more spray applications are required when fields are heavily infested by the weevil. Value of information analysis revealed that uncertainties related to the start of the infestation, loss damage rate and attainable yield have the greatest influence on the decision recommendation for crop protection. Narrowing these key knowledge gaps may offer additional clarity on the performance of the current management strategies and provide guidance for the development of strategies to reduce insecticide use. This is particularly important for the promotion of the proactive strategy, which, under the current infestation pressure, has potential to reduce insecticide use. While economic injury levels can only be applied to responsive measures, our approach of partial budget analysis under uncertainty allows us to assess and compare both responsive and preventive measures in the same methodological framework. This framework can be extended to non-pesticide control measures.

害虫管理中的决策是一项具有挑战性的任务。虽然有害生物动态通常非常不确定，但此类决定通常基于确定性的微弱假设（经济伤害水平和边际效用近似值）。为了克服这些假设并充分考虑不确定性，我们应用决策分析来评估哥伦比亚加勒比地区农民针对棉铃象鼻虫 (BW) 使用的管理策略。我们使用部分预算分析来表示保护作物的决定。这使我们能够捕捉 BW 控制策略的关键特性，同时考虑虫害侵袭压力、控制有效性以及棉花产量和价格的不确定性。我们的结果表明，鉴于当前的 BW 侵扰压力，主动害虫管理比被动控制更有效。然而，农民可能更喜欢反应策略，因为他们经历了低侵袭压力的季节，不需要使用杀虫剂。相比之下，主动策略要求在所有年份都按计划施用农药。结果表明，在高侵染压力的季节，反应策略的预期收入往往会下降，主要是因为当田地被象鼻虫严重侵扰时，需要更多的喷洒。信息分析的价值表明，与侵染开始、损失损害率和可达到的产量相关的不确定性对作物保护的决策建议影响最大。缩小这些关键知识差距可能会进一步明确当前管理策略的绩效，并为制定减少杀虫剂使用的策略提供指导。这对于促进主动战略尤为重要，在当前的虫害压力下，该战略有可能减少杀虫剂的使用。虽然经济损害水平只能应用于响应性措施，但我们在不确定性下的部分预算分析方法使我们能够在相同的方法框架中评估和比较响应性和预防性措施。该框架可以扩展到非农药控制措施。有可能减少杀虫剂的使用。虽然经济损害水平只能应用于响应性措施，但我们在不确定性下的部分预算分析方法使我们能够在相同的方法框架中评估和比较响应性和预防性措施。该框架可以扩展到非农药控制措施。有可能减少杀虫剂的使用。虽然经济损害水平只能应用于响应性措施，但我们在不确定性下的部分预算分析方法使我们能够在同一方法框架中评估和比较响应性和预防性措施。该框架可以扩展到非农药控制措施。