Purpose

This study aims to examine the transmission mechanism of factors on the characteristic fluctuation of Vietnamese coffee bean export price (PVN).

Design/methodology/approach

Applying Markov switching–vector autoregressive model.

Findings

Significantly, the empirical results showed that the transmission of independent variables on PVN is non-linear, and the fluctuation of PVN is affected by many factors, especially PVN in the previous period. In addition, the effect of Robusta coffee price was the greatest with coefficient is 0.28785, and the correlation between PVN and it was also the highest in both regimes with coefficients are 0.5317 and 0.3959, respectively.

Originality/value

These obtained results are in accordance with reality, as Vietnam is the largest exporter of Robusta coffee in the world.

中文翻译：

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越南咖啡出口价格波动特征及影响因素传导机制：马尔科夫转换法

目的

本研究旨在探讨影响越南咖啡豆出口价格（PVN）特征波动的因素的传导机制。

设计/方法/方法

应用马尔可夫切换-向量自回归模型。

发现

值得注意的是，实证结果表明自变量在PVN上的传递是非线性的，PVN的波动受多种因素的影响，尤其是前期的PVN。此外，罗布斯塔咖啡价格的影响最大，系数为0.28785，PVN与两者的相关系数也最高，系数分别为0.5317和0.3959。

原创性/价值

这些结果符合现实，因为越南是世界上最大的罗布斯塔咖啡出口国。