Does financial inclusion through opening of bank accounts catalyze economic activity? We use the case study of a large-scale financial inclusion programme in India called Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) to investigate this question. We deploy a panel cointegration and causality framework on a sub-national dataset. Firstly, we establish that financial inclusion and economic activity share a long-term link. The variables move together and are in a long-run equilibrium relationship. Secondly, we find that the relationship between financial inclusion and economic activity experiences structural breaks clustered around the month in which demonetization of Indian currency was announced. Further, our analysis of causality directions shows that in the period before demonetization, an increase in economic activity causes an increase in the use of banking. Post-demonetization, the direction of the causal relationship between economic activity and banking reverses. An increase in banking transactions now causes a positive impact on economic growth. We discuss the likely channels through which causality operates and the possible reasons for reversal in the causality direction. We contend that financial inclusion through access to savings accounts does not impact economic growth in the short-term. Access to an account does not appear to be a sufficient condition. Post account openings, policies to encourage its usage have an important role to play in improving economic activity. To encourage account usage, policy makers could explore introducing incentives for a limited number of initial transactions, develop innovative savings products based on account usage patterns, and also use tax-breaks to encourage employers to pay salaries and wages to the bank account of employees.

通过开设银行账户实现金融包容性是否会促进经济活动？我们使用印度一个名为 Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) 的大型普惠金融计划的案例研究来调查这个问题。我们在次国家数据集上部署了面板协整和因果关系框架。首先，我们确定普惠金融和经济活动之间存在长期联系。变量一起移动并处于长期均衡关系中。其次，我们发现金融包容性与经济活动之间的关系经历了结构性断裂，集中在印度货币宣布取消货币化的月份。此外，我们对因果关系方向的分析表明，在非货币化之前的时期，经济活动的增加导致银行业务的增加。非货币化后，经济活动与银行业之间因果关系的方向发生逆转。银行交易的增加现在对经济增长产生了积极影响。我们讨论因果关系运作的可能渠道以及因果关系方向逆转的可能原因。我们认为，通过使用储蓄账户实现金融包容性不会在短期内影响经济增长。访问帐户似乎不是充分条件。开户后，鼓励其使用的政策在改善经济活动方面发挥着重要作用。为了鼓励账户使用，政策制定者可以探索为有限数量的初始交易引入激励措施，