The bacterium Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is an invasive insect-borne pathogen, which causes lethal diseases to important crops including olives, citrus, almonds and grapes as well as numerous forest, ornamental, and uncultivated plants. Outbreaks of Xf-related plant diseases are currently occurring in the Mediterranean region, causing substantial losses to various agricultural sectors. Several models have recently been published to identify which regions are at highest risk in Europe; however, such models did not consider the insect vectors, which constitute the key driver of short-range Xf spread. We fitted bioclimatic species distribution models to depict the macroclimatic preferences of the meadow spittlebug Philaenus spumarius L. (1978) (Hemiptera: Aphrophoridae), the major epidemiologically relevant vector currently responsible for Xf spread in the Europe. Many regions of Western Europe and Mediterranean basin are predicted by models as highly climatically suitable for this vector, including all regions where severe Xf have occurred so far. Conversely, the driest and warmest areas of the Mediterranean basin are predicted as little suitable for P. spumarius. Models forecast that agricultural-important parts of the southern Mediterranean area might experience a substantial decrease in climatic suitability for P. spumarius by the period 2040–2060. Areas predicted as highly suitable just for the bacterium but not optimal for this vector are apparently still free of severe Xf outbreaks, suggesting that climate tolerances of P. spumarius might partly explain the current spatial pattern of Xf outbreaks in Europe and should always be considered in further risk assessments.

细菌叶缘焦枯病菌（Xf中）是一种侵入性虫媒病原体，这会导致致命的疾病，包括橄榄，柑橘，杏仁和葡萄以及众多的森林，观赏植物，以及植物未开垦重要作物。地中海地区目前正在爆发与Xf相关的植物病害，给各个农业部门造成重大损失。最近发布了几个模型来确定欧洲哪些地区的风险最高；然而，这些模型没有考虑昆虫媒介，昆虫媒介是短距离Xf传播的关键驱动因素。我们拟合了生物气候物种分布模型来描绘草甸飞蛾的大气候偏好Philaenus spumarius L. (1978)（半翅目：Aphrophoridae），目前负责Xf在欧洲传播的主要流行病学相关载体。模型预测西欧和地中海盆地的许多地区在气候上非常适合该载体，包括迄今为止发生过严重Xf 的所有地区。相反，预计地中海盆地最干燥和最温暖的地区不太适合P. spumarius。模型预测，地中海南部地区的农业重要地区可能会经历P. spumarius气候适宜性的大幅下降到 2040-2060 年期间。预测为高度适合细菌但不适合该载体的区域显然仍然没有严重的Xf爆发，这表明P. spumarius 的气候耐受性可能部分解释了欧洲Xf爆发的当前空间模式，并且应该始终考虑进一步的风险评估。