Abstract. Analyses of future agricultural drought impacts require a multidisciplinary approach in which both human and environmental dynamics are studied. In this study, we applied the agent-based drought risk model ADOPT to assess the effect of various drought risk reduction interventions on smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. Moreover, the robustness of these (non-)governmental interventions under different climate change scenarios was evaluated. ADOPT simulates water management decisions of smallholder farmers, and evaluates household food insecurity, poverty and emergency aid needs due to drought disasters. Model dynamics were informed by extensive field surveys and interviews from which decision rules were distilled based on bounded rational behaviour theories. Model results suggest that extension services increase the adoption of low-cost, newer drought adaptation measures while credit schemes are useful for cost-effective but expensive measures, and ex-ante cash transfers allow the least wealthy households to adopt low-cost well-known measures. Early warning systems show more effective in climate scenarios with less frequent droughts. Combining all four interventions displays a mutually-reinforcing effect with a sharp increase in the adoption of measures resulting in reduced food insecurity, decreased poverty levels and drastically lower need for emergency aid, even under hotter and drier climate conditions. These nonlinear synergies indicate that a holistic perspective is needed to support smallholder resilience in the Kenyan drylands.

中文翻译：

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教育、财政援助和意识可以降低小农在气候变化下对干旱的脆弱性

摘要。对未来农业干旱影响的分析需要一种多学科方法，其中研究人类和环境动态。在本研究中，我们应用基于代理的干旱风险模型 ADOPT 来评估各种减少干旱风险的干预措施对肯尼亚旱地小农的影响。此外，评估了这些（非）政府干预在不同气候变化情景下的稳健性。ADOPT 模拟小农的水资源管理决策，并评估因干旱灾害导致的家庭粮食不安全、贫困和紧急援助需求。模型动态来自广泛的实地调查和访谈，根据有限理性行为理论从中提炼出决策规则。模型结果表明推广服务增加了低成本、较新的干旱适应措施，而信贷计划可用于具有成本效益但昂贵的措施，而事前现金转移使最不富裕的家庭能够采用低成本的众所周知的措施。预警系统在干旱频率较低的气候情景中表现出更有效。将所有四种干预措施结合起来显示出相辅相成的效果，即使在更热和更干燥的气候条件下，采取的措施也会大幅增加，从而减少粮食不安全、降低贫困水平和大幅减少对紧急援助的需求。这些非线性协同作用表明，需要从整体角度来支持肯尼亚旱地小农的复原力。和事前现金转移允许最不富裕的家庭采取低成本的众所周知的措施。预警系统在干旱频率较低的气候情景中表现出更有效。将所有四种干预措施结合起来显示出相辅相成的效果，即使在更热和更干燥的气候条件下，采取的措施也会大幅增加，从而减少粮食不安全、降低贫困水平和大幅减少对紧急援助的需求。这些非线性协同作用表明，需要从整体角度来支持肯尼亚旱地小农的复原力。和事前现金转移允许最不富裕的家庭采取低成本的众所周知的措施。预警系统在干旱频率较低的气候情景中表现出更有效。将所有四种干预措施结合起来显示出相辅相成的效果，即使在更热和更干燥的气候条件下，采取的措施也会大幅增加，从而减少粮食不安全、降低贫困水平和大幅减少对紧急援助的需求。这些非线性协同作用表明，需要从整体角度来支持肯尼亚旱地小农的复原力。将所有四种干预措施结合起来显示出相辅相成的效果，即使在更热和更干燥的气候条件下，采取的措施也会大幅增加，从而减少粮食不安全、降低贫困水平和大幅减少对紧急援助的需求。这些非线性协同作用表明，需要从整体角度来支持肯尼亚旱地小农的复原力。将所有四种干预措施结合起来显示出相辅相成的效果，即使在更热和更干燥的气候条件下，采取的措施也会大幅增加，从而减少粮食不安全、降低贫困水平和大幅减少对紧急援助的需求。这些非线性协同作用表明，需要从整体角度来支持肯尼亚旱地小农的复原力。