Careful timing of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing may avoid high “second waves” of infections of COVID-19. This article asks what should be the timing of a set of K complete-lockdowns of prespecified lengths (such as two weeks) so as to minimize the peak of the infective compartment. Perhaps surprisingly, it is possible to give an explicit and easily computable rule for when each lockdown should commence. Simulations are used to show that the rule remains fairly accurate even if lockdowns are not perfect.

中文翻译：

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使用固定数量的完全锁定时最小化 SIR 流行病模型中感染峰值的显式公式

谨慎选择非药物干预措施（例如保持社交距离）可以避免 COVID-19 感染的“第二波”高发。这篇文章询问了一组预先指定长度（例如两周）的K次完全锁定的时间应该是什么，以便最大限度地减少感染室的峰值。也许令人惊讶的是，可以为每次锁定何时开始给出一个明确且易于计算的规则。模拟用于表明即使锁定不完美，该规则仍然相当准确。