The main goal of this study is to present a recently developed classification method for weather types based on the vorticity and the location of the synoptic centers relative to the Adriatic region. The basis of the present objective classification, applied to the Adriatic region, is the subjective classification developed by Poje. Our algorithm considered daily mean sea-level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height to define one out of 17 possible weather types. We applied the algorithm to identify which weather type was relevant in the generation of the two typical near-surface winds over the Adriatic region, namely Bora and Sirocco. Two high-resolution (0.11°) EURO-CORDEX regional climate models were used, SMHI-RCA4 and DHMZ-RegCM4, forced by several CMIP5 global climate models and analyzed for two 30-year periods: near-present day and mid-21st century climate conditions under the high-end Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario. Bora and Sirocco days were extracted for each weather type and a distribution over the 30-year period was presented. Our results suggest that in the winter season, climate model projections indicate a reduction in the main cyclonic types relevant in the formation of Bora over the entire Adriatic region and an increase in the number of anticyclonic types relevant in Sirocco events. In contrast, for the summer season, an increase in the main anticyclonic Bora-related weather types is found in the ensemble over the northern Adriatic region.

中文翻译：

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天气类型分类及其在亚得里亚海地区近地表风气候变化预测中的应用

本研究的主要目标是根据涡度和天气中心相对于亚得里亚海地区的位置，提出一种最近开发的天气类型分类方法。目前应用于亚得里亚海地区的客观分类的基础是 Poje 开发的主观分类。我们的算法考虑了每日平均海平面压力和 500 hPa 位势高度，以定义 17 种可能的天气类型中的一种。我们应用该算法来确定哪种天气类型与亚得里亚海地区的两种典型近地表风（即 Bora 和 Sirocco）的产生有关。使用了两个高分辨率 (0.11°) EURO-CORDEX 区域气候模型，SMHI-RCA4 和 DHMZ-RegCM4，由几个 CMIP5 全球气候模型强制并分析了两个 30 年期间：高端代表性浓度路径 (RCP8.5) 情景下的近现代和 21 世纪中期气候条件。提取了每种天气类型的 Bora 和 Sirocco 天数，并呈现了 30 年期间的分布。我们的结果表明，在冬季，气候模型预测表明在整个亚得里亚海地区与波拉岛形成相关的主要气旋类型减少，而与 Sirocco 事件相关的反气旋类型数量增加。相比之下，在夏季，在亚得里亚海北部地区的集合中发现与波拉岛相关的主要反气旋天气类型有所增加。提取了每种天气类型的 Bora 和 Sirocco 天数，并呈现了 30 年期间的分布。我们的结果表明，在冬季，气候模型预测表明在整个亚得里亚海地区与波拉岛形成相关的主要气旋类型减少，而与 Sirocco 事件相关的反气旋类型数量增加。相比之下，在夏季，在亚得里亚海北部地区的集合中发现与波拉岛相关的主要反气旋天气类型有所增加。提取了每种天气类型的 Bora 和 Sirocco 天数，并呈现了 30 年期间的分布。我们的结果表明，在冬季，气候模型预测表明在整个亚得里亚海地区与波拉岛形成相关的主要气旋类型减少，而与 Sirocco 事件相关的反气旋类型数量增加。相比之下，在夏季，在亚得里亚海北部地区的集合中发现与波拉岛相关的主要反气旋天气类型有所增加。