We assess the impact of exogenous variation in oral contraceptives prices—a year-long decline followed by a sharp increase due to a documented collusion case—on fertility decisions and newborns’ outcomes. Our empirical strategy follows an interrupted time-series design, which is implemented using multiple sources of administrative information. As prices skyrocketed (45% within a few weeks), the Pill’s consumption plunged, and weekly conceptions increased (3.2% after a few months). We show large effects on the number of children born to unmarried mothers, to mothers in their early twenties, and to primiparae women. The incidence of low birth weight and fetal/infant deaths increased (declined) as the cost of birth control pills rose (fell). In addition, we document a disproportional increase in the weekly miscarriage and stillbirth rates. As children reached school age, we find lower school enrollment rates and higher participation in special education programs. Our evidence suggests these “extra” conceptions were more likely to face adverse conditions during critical periods of development.

我们评估了口服避孕药价格的外源性变化对生育决定和新生儿结局的影响——持续一年的下降，随后由于有记录的勾结案例而急剧上涨。我们的经验策略遵循中断的时间序列设计，该设计使用多个管理信息源来实施。随着价格飞涨（几周内达到 45%），避孕药的消耗量急剧下降，每周受孕增加（几个月后为 3.2%）。我们展示了对未婚母亲、二十出头的母亲和初产妇所生孩子数量的巨大影响。随着避孕药成本的上升（下降），低出生体重和胎儿/婴儿死亡的发生率增加（下降）。此外，我们记录了每周流产和死产率的不成比例增加。随着儿童达到学龄，我们发现入学率降低，特殊教育项目的参与度增加。我们的证据表明，这些“额外”的概念在发育的关键时期更有可能面临不利条件。