Changes in future soil erosion rates are driven by climatic conditions, land use patterns, socio-economic development, farmers’ choices, and importantly modified by agro-environmental policies. This study simulates the impact of expected climatic and land use change projections on future rates of soil erosion by water (sheet and rill processes) in 2050 within the agricultural areas of the European Union and the UK, compared to a current representative baseline (2016). We used the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) adjusted at continental scale with projections of future rainfall erosivity and land use change. Future rainfall erosivity is predicted using an average composite of 19 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIP5) WorldClim dataset across three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Concerning future land use change and crop dynamics, we used the projections provided by the Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis (CAPRI) model.

Depending on the RCP scenario, we estimate a +13 %-22.5 % increase in the mean soil erosion rate in the EU and UK, rising from an estimated 3.07 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (2016) to between 3.46 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (RCP2.6 scenario) and 3.76 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (RCP8.5 scenario). Here, we disentangle the impact of land use change and climate change in relation to future soil losses. Projected land use change in the EU and UK indicates an overall increase of pasture coverage in place of croplands. This land use change is estimated to reduce soil erosion rates (-3%). In contrast, the increases in future rainfall erosivity (+15.7 %–25.5 %) will force important increases of soil erosion requiring further targeted intervention measures.

Given that agro-environmental policies will be the most effective mechanisms to offset this future increase in soil erosion rates, this study proposes soil conservation instruments foreseen in the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to run policy scenarios. A targeted application of cover crops in soil erosion hotspots combined with limited soil disturbance measures can partially or completely mitigate the effect of climate change on soil losses. Effective mitigation of future soil losses requires policy measures for soil conservation on at least 50 % of agricultural land with erosion rates above 5 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹.

未来土壤侵蚀率的变化受气候条件、土地利用模式、社会经济发展、农民的选择以及重要的农业环境政策的影响。与当前的代表性基线（2016 年）相比，本研究模拟了 2050 年欧盟和英国农业区内预期的气候和土地利用变化预测对未来水土流失率（片状和细沟过程）的影响. 我们使用了修订后的通用土壤流失方程 (RUSLE)，在大陆尺度上进行了调整，并预测了未来的降雨侵蚀力和土地利用变化。使用来自耦合模型比对项目 (CMIP5) WorldClim 数据集的 19 个全球气候模型 (GCM) 的平均复合预测未来降雨侵蚀力，跨越三个代表性浓度路径 (RCP2. 6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）。关于未来的土地利用变化和作物动态，我们使用了共同农业政策区域影响分析 (CAPRI) 模型提供的预测。

根据 RCP 情景，我们估计欧盟和英国的平均土壤侵蚀率增加了 +13 %-22.5 %，从估计的 3.07 t ha ^-1 yr ^-1 (2016)上升到 3.46 t ha ^-1 yr ^-1（RCP2.6 情景）和 3.76 t ha ^-1 yr ^-1（RCP8.5 场景）。在这里，我们将土地利用变化和气候变化对未来土壤流失的影响分开。欧盟和英国的预计土地利用变化表明，牧场覆盖率整体增加，以取代农田。据估计，这种土地利用变化会降低土壤侵蚀率 (-3%)。相比之下，未来降雨侵蚀力的增加（+15.7%–25.5%）将迫使土壤侵蚀显着增加，需要采取进一步有针对性的干预措施。

鉴于农业环境政策将是抵消未来土壤侵蚀率增加的最有效机制，本研究提出了欧盟共同农业政策 (CAP) 中预见的土壤保护工具，以运行政策情景。在土壤侵蚀热点地区有针对性地应用覆盖作物，结合有限的土壤扰动措施，可以部分或完全减轻气候变化对土壤流失的影响。有效缓解未来土壤流失需要采取政策措施，对至少 50% 的侵蚀率超过 5 t ha ^-1 yr ^-1的农用地进行土壤保持。