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Optimal control analysis of bluetongue virus transmission in patchy environments connected by host and wind-aided midge movements
Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computing ( IF 2.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-22 , DOI: 10.1007/s12190-021-01596-9
Francis Mugabi 1 , Kevin J. Duffy 1 , Obiora C. Collins 1 , Joseph Y. T. Mugisha 2
Affiliation  

Bluetongue, a midge-borne disease of ruminants caused by the bluetongue virus (BTV) can rapidly spread from one region (patch) to another by host and/or midge movements, making its control difficult. A multi-patch deterministic model for BTV is formulated and analysed to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination, quarantine, insecticide spraying and the use of repellent control strategies in reducing the within and between-patches transmission. By using optimal control theory, the effectiveness of these strategies is established. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are calculated to determine the most cost-effective strategy. In a single patch, vaccination, insecticide spraying and the use of repellents are all highly effective in minimising transmission, but the most cost-effective is vaccination. In patches connected by host and midge movements, if any of these controls is applied in a high-risk patch, a disease-free status is achieved in both patches, but if implemented in a low-risk patch, it is not attained in any patch. If hosts and midges move, quarantine has no effect, but for no midge movement, the effect can be large in a low-risk patch if it’s internally imposed.



中文翻译:

寄主与风助蠓运动相连的斑驳环境中蓝舌病病毒传播的最优控制分析

蓝舌病是一种由蓝舌病病毒 (BTV) 引起的反刍动物蠓传播疾病,可通过宿主和/或蠓运动从一个地区(斑块)迅速传播到另一个地区,使其难以控制。制定并分析了 BTV 的多斑块确定性模型,以评估疫苗接种、检疫、喷洒杀虫剂和使用驱虫剂控制策略在减少斑块内和斑块间传播方面的有效性。通过使用最优控制理论,建立了这些策略的有效性。计算增量成本效益比以确定最具成本效益的策略。在单个贴片中,接种疫苗、喷洒杀虫剂和使用驱虫剂都可以非常有效地减少传播,但最具成本效益的是接种疫苗。在由宿主和蠓运动连接的补丁中,如果在高风险补丁中应用这些控制中的任何一个,则在两个补丁中都达到无病状态,但如果在低风险补丁中实施,则在任何情况下都无法达到修补。如果宿主和蠓移动,隔离没有影响,但对于蠓不移动,如果是内部施加的,则在低风险补丁中的影响可能很大。

更新日期:2021-07-22
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