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Decadal changes of heatwave aspects and heat index over Egypt
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-22 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03721-x
Mostafa Morsy 1 , Gamal El Afandi 1, 2
Affiliation  

This study aims to utilize the existing new and superior heatwave (HW) indices (ClimPACTv2) software to identify the decadal changes of HW aspects (number (HWN), duration (HWD), frequency (HWF), amplitude (HWA), and magnitude (HWM)) over Egypt during the period 1979–2018. The 90th percentile threshold maximum (TX90), minimum (TN90) temperatures, and excess heat factor (EHF) indices were chosen to compute these five HW aspects. The results showed that the lowest decadal summations of HWN (5–20), HWD (20–40 days), and HWF (20–80 days) were detected in the first decade (1979–1988) and increased significantly with positive decadal anomaly trends up to the last decade (2009–2018). Furthermore, Egypt especially the southeastern part subjected to HWA above 300 °C and HWM above 200 °C from both TX90 and TN90 and is confined to the northwestern part with HWA above 140°C2 and HWM exceed 50°C2 from EHF, particularly during the last two decades. Also, the decadal averages of temperature (T, °C) increased gradually over time especially in the southeastern part of Egypt, while the decadal averages of relative humidity (RH, %) nearly remained constant. Therefore, T has a most effective role than RH in determining HI over Egypt during the study period. This creates a relatively tolerable environment for the human body despite the increasing trend over time in the five HW aspects. Thus, all of Egypt falls within the heat index (HI) caution range (26–32 °C) except for the southeastern part which has extreme caution values (32–41 °C) in the last two decades.



中文翻译:

埃及热浪面和热指数的年代际变化

本研究旨在利用现有的新的和优越的热浪 (HW) 指数 (ClimPACTv2) 软件来识别 HW 方面 (数量 (HWN)、持续时间 (HWD)、频率 (HWF)、幅度 (HWA) 和震级的年代际变化) (HWM)) 在 1979-2018 年期间在埃及上空。选择第 90 个百分位数阈值最大值 (TX90)、最低 (TN90) 温度和过热系数 (EHF) 指数来计算这五个硬件方面。结果表明,HWN(5-20​​)、HWD(20-40天)和HWF(20-80天)的最低十年总和出现在第一个十年(1979-1988),并随着十年正异常值显着增加过去十年(2009-2018 年)的趋势。此外,2和 HWM 超过 50°C 2来自 EHF,特别是在过去的二十年中。此外,年代际平均温度 (T, °C) 随时间逐渐增加,尤其是在埃及东南部,而年代际相对湿度 (RH, %) 平均值几乎保持不变。因此,在研究期间,T 在确定埃及的 HI 方面比 RH 具有最有效的作用。这为人体创造了一个相对可以忍受的环境,尽管在五个硬件方面随着时间的推移有增加的趋势。因此,除了在过去二十年中具有极端谨慎值(32-41°C)的东南部外,埃及的所有地区都属于高温指数(HI)警告范围(26-32°C)。

更新日期:2021-07-22
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