This paper examines the role of similarity judgements in Keynes’s theory of analogy as discussed in the Treatise on Probability (Keynes, 1921) and outlines a conceptual framework in which induction by analogy based on the identification of partial resemblances leads to likelihood as the central disposition by which human actors assign a pattern to uncertainty. The structure of the paper is as follows. Section 2 discusses Keynes’ view of analogy as the foundation of inductive inference. Section 3 outlines a theory of similarity based on Keynes’s criteria of finite variety and negative analogy. Section 4 highlights the relationship between a similarity-based theory of induction and Keynes’ ontological view that similarity features derive from a finite number of ‘generator properties’. Section 5 examines the social structuring of similarity features and the active role of agents in constructing the inductive knowledge of the world they inhabit. Section 6 brings the paper to close by calling attention to the relationship between dispositions, circumstantial visualisation of similarity features and problem-solving actions in the world of practice.

中文翻译：

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模式化不确定性：部分相似、类比和可能性

本文研究了相似性判断在凯恩斯的类比理论中的作用，正如在《概率论》（Keynes，1921）中所讨论的那样，并概述了一个概念框架，在该框架中，基于部分相似性的识别的类比归纳导致可能性作为中心倾向哪些人类行为者将模式分配给不确定性。论文的结构如下。第 2 节讨论了凯恩斯将类比​​视为归纳推理基础的观点。第 3 节概述了基于凯恩斯有限多样性和否定类比标准的相似性理论。第 4 节强调了基于相似性的归纳理论与凯恩斯的本体论观点之间的关系，即相似性特征源自有限数量的“生成器属性”。第 5 节考察了相似性特征的社会结构以及代理人在构建他们所居住的世界的归纳知识中的积极作用。第 6 节通过提请注意倾向、相似性特征的环境可视化和实践世界中解决问题的行动之间的关系来结束本文。