This work marks a thorough analysis of a confidential real-time dataset consisting of the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections since their existence. By applying techniques widely employed in the literature of forecast evaluation, we examine their statistical properties with a special emphasis on optimality and rationality. Long-term GDP projections are biased (tendency to overpredict), do not fully account for available information, and are outperformed by private sector expectations. Inflation projections are optimal and rational on a full-sample analysis; however, subsample analysis reveals two distinct periods with a persistent and significant bias. Before the financial crisis inflation was persistently underpredicted, while in post-2013, the bias reverses into overprediction.

中文翻译：

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评估欧元体系/欧洲央行工作人员的宏观经济预测：前 20 年

这项工作标志着对机密实时数据集的彻底分析，该数据集由欧元体系/欧洲央行工作人员自存在以来的宏观经济预测组成。通过应用在预测评估文献中广泛使用的技术，我们检查了它们的统计特性，特别强调了最优性和合理性。长期 GDP 预测存在偏差（倾向于高估），没有充分考虑可用信息，并且优于私营部门的预期。在全样本分析中，通货膨胀预测是最优且合理的；然而，子样本分析揭示了两个不同的时期，具有持续且显着的偏差。在金融危机之前，通胀一直被低估，而在 2013 年后，这种偏见转变为高估。