The spotted lanternfly (SLF) is an invasive pest that emerged in the US less than a decade ago. With few natural enemies and an ability to feed on a wide variety of readily available plants the population has grown rapidly. It is causing damage to a wide range of natural and economically important farmed plants and at present there is no known way to stop the growth and spread of the population. However, a number of control measures have been proposed to limit the growth and the effectiveness of some of these have been assessed via empirical studies. Studies to estimate the natural mortality rate of the lanternfly’s different life stages and other properties of its life cycle are also available. However, no attempt to integrate this empirical information to estimate population level characteristics such as the population growth rate and the potential effects of proposed control measures can be found in the literature. Here, we introduce a simple population dynamics model parameterized using available information in the literature to obtain estimates of this type. Our model suggests that the annual growth rate of the SLF population in the US is 5.47, that only three out of six proposed control measures considered here have the potential to decrease the population even if we can find and treat each SLF in every stage, and that even with a combined strategy involving the most effective proposed control measures about 35% of all SLF in the relevant stages must be found and treated to turn the current population growth into decline. Suggesting that eradication of the spotted lanternfly over larger geographical areas in the US will be challenging, and we believe that the modeling framework presented here may be useful in providing estimates to inform feasibility assessment of proposed management efforts.

斑点灯笼蝇 (SLF) 是一种入侵性害虫，不到十年前出现在美国。由于天敌很少，并且能够以各种现成的植物为食，人口迅速增长。它正在对范围广泛的自然和经济上重要的养殖植物造成损害，目前还没有已知的方法来阻止人口的增长和扩散。然而，已经提出了许多控制措施来限制增长，并且已经通过实证研究评估了其中一些措施的有效性。估计灯笼蝇不同生命阶段的自然死亡率和生命周期其他特性的研究也是可用的。然而，文献中没有尝试整合这些经验信息来估计人口水平特征，例如人口增长率和拟议控制措施的潜在影响。在这里，我们引入了一个简单的人口动态模型，该模型使用文献中的可用信息进行参数化，以获得此类估计。我们的模型表明，美国 SLF 人口的年增长率为 5.47，即使我们可以在每个阶段找到并治疗每个 SLF，这里考虑的六项拟议控制措施中也只有三项有可能减少人口，并且即使采用包含最有效的拟议控制措施的组合策略，也必须找到并处理相关阶段所有 SLF 的约 35%，以将当前的人口增长转变为下降。