Despite the widespread application of landslide susceptibility analyses, there is hardly any information about whether or not the occurrence of recent landslide events was correctly predicted by the relevant susceptibility maps. Hence, the objective of this study is to evaluate four landslide susceptibility maps retrospectively in a landslide-prone area of the Swabian Alb (Germany). The predictive performance of each susceptibility map is evaluated based on a landslide event triggered by heavy rainfalls in the year 2013. The retrospective evaluation revealed significant variations in the predictive accuracy of the analyzed studies. Both completely erroneous as well as very precise predictions were observed. These differences are less attributed to the applied statistical method and more to the quality and comprehensiveness of the used input data. Furthermore, a literature review of 50 peer-reviewed articles showed that most landslide susceptibility analyses achieve very high validation scores. 73% of the analyzed studies achieved an area under curve (AUC) value of at least 80%. These high validation scores, however, do not reflect the high uncertainty in statistical susceptibility analysis. Thus, the quality assessment of landslide susceptibility maps should not only comprise an index-based, quantitative validation, but also an additional qualitative plausibility check considering local geomorphological characteristics and local landslide mechanisms. Finally, the proposed retrospective evaluation approach cannot only help to assess the quality of susceptibility maps and demonstrate the reliability of such statistical methods, but also identify issues that will enable the susceptibility maps to be improved in the future.

尽管滑坡敏感性分析得到了广泛应用，但几乎没有任何关于相关敏感性图是否正确预测近期滑坡事件发生的信息。因此，本研究的目的是回顾性地评估施瓦本阿尔布（德国）滑坡易发区的四个滑坡敏感性图。每张敏感性图的预测性能都是根据 2013 年强降雨引发的滑坡事件评估的。回顾性评估揭示了所分析研究的预测准确性存在显着差异。观察到了完全错误和非常精确的预测。这些差异较少归因于应用的统计方法，而更多归因于所使用输入数据的质量和全面性。此外，对 50 篇同行评审文章的文献综述表明，大多数滑坡敏感性分析都获得了非常高的验证分数。73% 的分析研究达到了至少 80% 的曲线下面积 (AUC) 值。然而，这些高验证分数并不能反映统计敏感性分析的高度不确定性。因此，滑坡敏感性图的质量评估不仅应包括基于指数的定量验证，还应包括考虑当地地貌特征和当地滑坡机制的额外定性合理性检查。最后，所提出的回顾性评估方法不仅有助于评估敏感性图的质量并证明此类统计方法的可靠性，