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Regression Models of Road User Cost Prediction for Highway Maintenance and Rehabilitation for Life Cycle Planning in California
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board ( IF 1.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-22 , DOI: 10.1177/03611981211027153
Sampat Kedarisetty 1 , Changmo Kim 1 , John T. Harvey 1
Affiliation  

Road user costs (RUCs) have been studied for the past few decades and still need to be considered to obtain a complete picture of the impact of road construction, maintenance, and rehabilitation. RUCs comprise delay costs (value of time), vehicle operating costs, and accident costs. Federal Highway Administration’s Life Cycle Cost Analysis software RealCost has been adapted, customized, and enhanced by California’s Department of Transportation (Caltrans) for California’s traffic patterns and maintenance practices in RealCostCA. However, the different types of roadways, traffic distributions, and work zone types have not been analyzed. In addition, RealCostCA works for selecting the most cost-effective pavement alternative under a project-specific basis and does not address network-level integration of RUCs. This study aimed to build easy-to-use look-up tables to obtain RUCs for a factorial of different work zone and traffic conditions. Different combinations of three roadway types (freeways, state highways, county roads), four representative hourly traffic distributions, three typical work zone closures (10-hour nighttime, 24-hour, 55-hour weekend closure), the numbers of lanes available in normal conditions (no work zone), and the numbers of lanes open during work zones were included in the factorial to calculate RUCs for specific traffic demand ranges at an interval of 5,000 vehicles per day per direction. The data obtained were subsequently used to combine into mixed regression models. These models enable calculation of RUC at any traffic level customized to the location of the project. Future work will be undertaken to combine the models into Caltrans’ network-level pavement management system.



中文翻译:

加利福尼亚州生命周期规划中公路维护和修复的道路使用者成本预测回归模型

道路使用者成本 (RUC) 已在过去几十年中得到研究,但仍需要加以考虑,以全面了解道路建设、维护和修复的影响。RUC 包括延误成本(时间价值)、车辆运营成本和事故成本。联邦公路管理局的生命周期成本分析软件RealCost已由加利福尼亚州交通部 (Caltrans) 针对RealCostCA 中的加利福尼亚州交通模式和维护实践进行了调整、定制和增强。但是,尚未分析不同类型的道路、交通分布和工作区类型。此外,RealCostCA用于在特定项目的基础上选择最具成本效益的路面替代方案,并且不涉及 RUC 的网络级集成。本研究旨在构建易于使用的查找表,以获得不同工作区和交通条件的阶乘的 RUC。三种道路类型(高速公路、国道、县道)的不同组合、四种代表性的每小时交通分布、三种典型的工作区封闭(夜间 10 小时、24 小时、55 小时周末封闭)、可用车道数量正常条件(无工作区)和工作区期间开放的车道数量包含在阶乘中,以每个方向每天 5,000 辆车的间隔计算特定交通需求范围的 RUC。获得的数据随后用于组合成混合回归模型。这些模型可以在根据项目位置定制的任何流量级别计算 RUC。未来的工作将把这些模型结合到 Caltrans 的网络级路面管理系统中。

更新日期:2021-07-22
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