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Modeling the nonlinear effects of opinion kinematics in elections: A simple Ising model with random field based study
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-21 , DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.126287
Mukesh Tiwari 1 , Xiguang Yang 2 , Surajit Sen 2
Affiliation  

Inspired by partisan competitions and contentious elections in democratic countries, we numerically explore the effect of campaign strategies and related factors on the opinion of an electorate. The nature of the electorate is modeled through agents with different behaviors, such as, being conformist, contrarian or inflexible. The agents are assumed to take discrete opinion values that depend on both internal and external influences. The inhomogeneity of external influence on individuals is modeled as a random field. Two types of electorates have been considered. In an electorate with only conformist agents short-duration high impact campaigns are highly effective. These are, however, also sensitive to perturbations at the local level modeled as inflexibles and/or absentees. In electorates with both conformist and contrarian agents and varying level of dominance due to local factors, short-term campaigns are effective only in the case of fragile dominance of a single party. Strong local dominance is relatively difficult to influence and long term campaigns with strategies aimed to impact local level politics are seen to be more effective.



中文翻译:

模拟选举中意见运动学的非线性效应:基于随机场研究的简单 Ising 模型

受民主国家党派竞争和有争议的选举的启发,我们从数值上探讨了竞选策略和相关因素对选民意见的影响。选民的本质是通过具有不同行为的代理来建模的,例如顺从、逆向或不灵活。假设代理采用取决于内部和外部影响的离散意见值。外部影响对个人的不均匀性被建模为一个随机场。已经考虑了两种类型的选民。在只有顺从代理人的选民中,短期高影响力的竞选活动非常有效。然而,这些也对被建模为不灵活和/或缺席者的地方层面的扰动敏感。在具有顺从者和逆向者代理人以及因地方因素而具有不同程度支配地位的选民中,短期竞选仅在单一政党处于脆弱支配地位的情况下才有效。强大的地方主导地位相对难以影响,旨在影响地方政治的长期运动被认为更有效。

更新日期:2021-07-29
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