Quantified global scenarios and projections are used to assess long-term future global food security under a range of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. Here, we conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to assess the range of future global food security projections to 2050. We reviewed 57 global food security projection and quantitative scenario studies that have been published in the past two decades and discussed the methods, underlying drivers, indicators and projections. Across five representative scenarios that span divergent but plausible socio-economic futures, the total global food demand is expected to increase by 35% to 56% between 2010 and 2050, while population at risk of hunger is expected to change by −91% to +8% over the same period. If climate change is taken into account, the ranges change slightly (+30% to +62% for total food demand and −91% to +30% for population at risk of hunger) but with no statistical differences overall. The results of our review can be used to benchmark new global food security projections and quantitative scenario studies and inform policy analysis and the public debate on the future of food.

量化的全球情景和预测用于评估一系列社会经济和气候变化情景下的长期未来全球粮食安全。在这里，我们进行了系统的文献回顾和荟萃分析，以评估到 2050 年的未来全球粮食安全预测的范围。我们回顾了过去二十年发表的 57 项全球粮食安全预测和定量情景研究，并讨论了方法，潜在的驱动因素、指标和预测。在跨越不同但看似合理的社会经济未来的五个代表性情景中，全球粮食总需求预计将在 2010 年至 2050 年间增长 35% 至 56%，而面临饥饿风险的人口预计将变化 -91% 至 +同期8%。如果考虑到气候变化，范围略有变化（总粮食需求为 +30% 至 +62%，处于饥饿风险中的人口为 -91% 至 +30%），但总体上没有统计差异。我们的审查结果可用于衡量新的全球粮食安全预测和定量情景研究，并为政策分析和关于粮食未来的公开辩论提供信息。