OBJECTIVE To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting recurrent hemoptysis after successful bronchial arterial embolization (BAE) in patients with bronchiectasis. MATERIALS AND METHODS From January 2015 to December 2019, a total of 251 patients were enrolled in this study. A nomogram was developed with the predictors of recurrent events, which were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. We evaluated nomogram discrimination by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration by the calibration curve, and clinical usefulness potential by decision curve analysis. RESULTS The one-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year cumulative recurrence-free rates of patients were 98.4%, 90.5%, 82.8%, 77.7%, and 74.4%, respectively. Three predictive factors, namely sex, lung destruction, and systemic arterial-pulmonary circulation shunts, were applied to develop the nomogram. The model maintained good discrimination (area under the curve, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.81), low prediction error (integrated Brier score, 0.129), and certain net benefits in terms of clinical usefulness. CONCLUSIONS The proposed nomogram showed favorable predictive efficacy for hemoptysis recurrence after BAE in patients with bronchiectasis. Improved long-term outcomes are expected with close follow-up, a healthy lifestyle, and pulmonary rehabilitation for patients at risk of recurrence according to the model.

中文翻译：

---

预测支气管动脉栓塞术后支气管扩张咯血复发的列线图。

目的 开发并验证用于预测支气管扩张患者成功支气管动脉栓塞 (BAE) 后咯血复发的列线图。材料与方法 2015年1月至2019年12月，本研究共纳入251例患者。用单变量和多变量 Cox 回归分析确定的复发事件预测因子开发了列线图。我们通过接受者操作特征曲线下的面积、通过校准曲线的校准以及通过决策曲线分析的临床有用潜力来评估列线图的辨别力。结果患者1个月、1年、2年、3年、5年累计无复发率分别为98.4%、90.5%、82.8%、77.7%、74.4%。三个预测因素，即性别、肺破坏、和全身动脉 - 肺循环分流器，用于开发列线图。该模型保持良好的辨别力（曲线下面积，0.72；95% 置信区间，0.62-0.81）、低预测误差（综合 Brier 评分，0.129），以及在临床有用性方面的某些净收益。结论 拟议的列线图对支气管扩张患者 BAE 后咯血复发具有良好的预测效果。根据该模型，对于有复发风险的患者，通过密切随访、健康的生活方式和肺康复，有望改善长期结果。以及在临床有用性方面的某些净收益。结论 拟议的列线图对支气管扩张患者 BAE 后咯血复发具有良好的预测效果。根据该模型，对于有复发风险的患者，通过密切随访、健康的生活方式和肺康复，有望改善长期结果。以及在临床有用性方面的某些净收益。结论 拟议的列线图对支气管扩张患者 BAE 后咯血复发具有良好的预测效果。根据该模型，对于有复发风险的患者，通过密切随访、健康的生活方式和肺康复，有望改善长期结果。