Flood frequency analysis of Manas River Basin in China under non-stationary condition,Journal of Flood Risk Management

当前位置： X-MOL 学术 › J. Flood Risk Manag. › 论文详情

Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)

Flood frequency analysis of Manas River Basin in China under non-stationary condition
Journal of Flood Risk Management ( IF 3.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-20 , DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12745
Chaofei He ₁ , Fulong Chen ₁ , Yixuan Wang ₂ , Aihua Long _{1,

3} , Xinlin He ₁

Affiliation

Incorporating 50 years of flood data for the Manas River Kenswat Hydrological Station from 1957 to 2006, the Pettitt test and Mann–Kendall trend test are used to analyse non-stationarity of the flood characteristic sequences. Moreover, the Pearson type-III (P-III) distribution, the mixed distribution (MD) and conditional probability distribution (CPD) models are employed to analyse frequency and to calculate the design flood process line. The results showed that the annual maximum peak discharge and the annual maximum flood volume are most likely to change in 1993. The MD model considering the non-stationarity of the flood sequence is more accurate than the CPD model and the traditional P-III distribution model. There are significant differences in the design flood process lines of the 1996 typical flood process obtained by the three methods using the same frequency scaling method. In addition, under different design standards, the design value of the MD model is 20–53% smaller than the design value approved in 2008 (approved by China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute) and 4–48% higher than the traditional P-III distribution design value. The results can provide a new reference for the management of non-stationary floods in Manas River.

更新日期：2021-07-20

点击分享查看原文

点击收藏

公开下载

阅读更多本刊最新论文本刊介绍/投稿指南11