In 2020, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) recommended that British consumers reduce their beef, lamb and dairy consumption by 20% for both environmental and health reasons. For a region like Northern Ireland, this presents a significant challenge. Northern Ireland, considered to be performing poorly local economy within the United Kingdom and Ireland, has an export-orientated agri-food sector with an extensive domestic supply chain. This study shows the likely trade-offs required for a small regional economy with a large, established cattle herd to sustainably transition from one agri-food system to another. In so doing, the study uses the most comprehensive agricultural data collections to rebalance Northern Irish input–output tables, to better account for the nature of NI intermediate consumption within an agri-food system. The results show that a large-scale transition from beef, lamb and dairy to fruit and vegetable production would create a more emission efficient agricultural sector. The worst economic effects could be offset within current NI policy parameters, although there would still likely be some economic costs.

2020 年，气候变化委员会 (CCC) 建议英国消费者出于环境和健康原因将牛肉、羊肉和乳制品的消费量减少 20%。对于像北爱尔兰这样的地区来说，这是一个巨大的挑战。北爱尔兰被认为在英国和爱尔兰的当地经济表现不佳，拥有以出口为导向的农业食品部门，拥有广泛的国内供应链。这项研究表明，小型区域经济拥有大量成熟的牛群，要从一种农业食品系统可持续地过渡到另一种农业食品系统，可能需要进行权衡取舍。为此，该研究使用最全面的农业数据收集来重新平衡北爱尔兰的投入产出表，以更好地说明农业食品系统中 NI 中间消费的性质。结果表明，从牛肉、羊肉和奶制品向水果和蔬菜生产的大规模转变将创造一个排放效率更高的农业部门。最坏的经济影响可以在当前的 NI 政策参数内被抵消，尽管仍然可能会产生一些经济成本。