ABSTRACT

Applying a triple hurdle model to nationally representative farm household data from Zambia, this study examines determinants associated with three sequential crop production decisions: animal draught power adoption, minimum tillage ripping adoption, and the extent of hectares ripped. The correlated random effects estimator is also used to explore two dimensions of minimum tillage ripping adoption: changes in adoption within a household over time (within-household effect) and differences in adoption between households at a given time (between-household effect). Results reveal that age and gender of the household head, the head's level of education, household labour, hectares cultivated, ripper ownership, loan access, receiving conservation farming advice and distance to agricultural service providers are some of the key determinants associated with the three stages investigated using the triple hurdle model. The correlated random effects results demonstrate that while certain factors enhance or inhibit the expected value of hectares ripped within a given household, it is not always the case that these factors have a similar effect when the analysis is between households. This article highlights policy options to enhance ownership of rippers, support smallholder farmer access to loans, facilitate development of agro-dealer networks, and innovative approaches for disseminating conservation farming information to farmers.

摘要

本研究将三重障碍模型应用于来自赞比亚的具有全国代表性的农户数据，研究了与三个连续作物生产决策相关的决定因素：采用畜力、采用最小耕作方式和种植面积。相关随机效应估计量还用于探索最小耕作撕裂采用的两个维度：家庭内采用随时间的变化（家庭内效应）和给定时间家庭之间采用的差异（家庭间效应）。结果显示，户主的年龄和性别、户主受教育程度、家庭劳动力、耕地面积、松土所有权、贷款获取、接受保护性农业建议和与农业服务提供者的距离是与使用三重障碍模型调查的三个阶段相关的一些关键决定因素。相关的随机效应结果表明，虽然某些因素会提高或抑制给定家庭内被砍伐的公顷的预期价值，但在家庭之间进行分析时，这些因素并不总是具有相似的影响。本文重点介绍了提高裂土者所有权、支持小农获得贷款、促进农产品经销商网络发展以及向农民传播保护性农业信息的创新方法的政策选择。相关的随机效应结果表明，虽然某些因素会提高或抑制给定家庭内被砍伐的公顷的预期价值，但在家庭之间进行分析时，这些因素并不总是具有相似的影响。本文重点介绍了提高裂土者所有权、支持小农获得贷款、促进农产品经销商网络发展以及向农民传播保护性农业信息的创新方法的政策选择。相关的随机效应结果表明，虽然某些因素会提高或抑制给定家庭内被砍伐的公顷的预期价值，但在家庭之间进行分析时，这些因素并不总是具有相似的影响。本文重点介绍了提高裂土者所有权、支持小农获得贷款、促进农产品经销商网络发展以及向农民传播保护性农业信息的创新方法的政策选择。