This paper provides new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of household labour income risk in Great Britain and the role of social insurance policy in mitigating against this source of income risk. To achieve this, we decompose stochastic idiosyncratic household income into its transitory and persistent components. We focus our analysis of income risk captured by the second to fourth moments of the probability distribution of shocks to the persistent component of income. We find that household labour income risk increases during contractions via changes in third and fourth central moments of persistent shocks to labour income, whereas the variance remains acyclical. We also find that economic policy has reduced the level of risk exposure and its increase during contractions via benefits rather than tax policies.

中文翻译：

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英国的周期性劳动收入风险

本文为英国家庭劳动收入风险的周期性行为以及社会保险政策在减轻这种收入风险来源中的作用提供了新的证据。为了实现这一点，我们将随机的异质家庭收入分解为其暂时和持久的组成部分。我们将重点分析冲击概率分布的第二到第四矩所捕获的收入风险，以分析收入的持续部分。我们发现，家庭劳动收入风险在收缩期间通过劳动收入持续冲击的第三和第四中心时刻的变化而增加，而方差仍然是非周期性的。我们还发现，经济政策通过福利而不是税收政策降低了风险敞口水平，并在收缩期间增加了风险敞口。