Climate change alters the environments of all species. Predicting species responses requires understanding how species track environmental change, and how such tracking shapes communities. Growing empirical evidence suggests that how species track phenologically – how an organism shifts the timing of major biological events in response to the environment – is linked to species performance and community structure. Such research tantalizingly suggests a potential framework to predict the winners and losers of climate change, and the future communities we can expect. But developing this framework requires far greater efforts to ground empirical studies of phenological tracking in relevant ecological theory. Here we review the concept of phenological tracking in empirical studies and through the lens of coexistence theory to show why a community-level perspective is critical to accurate predictions with climate change. While much current theory for tracking ignores the importance of a multi-species context, basic community assembly theory predicts that competition will drive variation in tracking and trade-offs with other traits. We highlight how existing community assembly theory can help understand tracking in stationary and non-stationary systems. But major advances in predicting the species- and community-level consequences of climate change will require advances in theoretical and empirical studies. We outline a path forward built on greater efforts to integrate priority effects into modern coexistence theory, improved empirical estimates of multivariate environmental change, and clearly defined estimates of phenological tracking and its underlying environmental cues.

中文翻译：

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物候追踪如何塑造非静止环境中的物种和群落

气候变化改变了所有物种的环境。预测物种反应需要了解物种如何追踪环境变化，以及这种追踪如何塑造群落。越来越多的经验证据表明，物种如何在物候上追踪——生物如何改变主要生物事件的时间以响应环境——与物种表现和群落结构有关。这样的研究诱人地提出了一个潜在的框架来预测气候变化的赢家和输家，以及我们可以期待的未来社区。但是，开发这个框架需要付出更大的努力，将物候追踪的实证研究纳入相关生态学理论。在这里，我们回顾了实证研究中物候追踪的概念，并通过共存理论的视角来说明为什么社区层面的观点对于准确预测气候变化至关重要。尽管当前的许多追踪理论都忽略了多物种背景的重要性，但基本的群落组装理论预测，竞争将推动追踪的变化以及与其他特征的权衡。我们强调现有的社区组装理论如何帮助理解固定和非固定系统中的跟踪。但是，在预测气候变化对物种和群落层面的影响方面取得重大进展，需要在理论和实证研究方面取得进展。我们勾勒出一条建立在更大努力将优先效应融入现代共存理论的前进道路，