Background Invasive species are one of the key elements of human-mediated ecosystem degradation and ecosystem services impairment worldwide. Dispersal of propagules is the first stage of plant species spread and strongly influences the dynamics of biological invasion. Therefore, distance prediction for invasive species spread is critical for invasion management. Heracleum sosnowskyi is one of the most dangerous invasive species with wind-dispersed propagules (seeds) across Eastern Europe. This study developed a simple mechanistic model for H. sosnowskyi propagule dispersal and their distances with an accuracy comparable to that of empirical measurements. Methods We measured and compared the propagule traits (terminal velocity, mass, area, and wing loading) and release height for H. sosnowskyi populations from two geographically distant regions of European Russia. We tested two simple mechanistic models: a ballistic model and a wind gradient model using identical artificial propagules. The artificial propagules were made of colored paper with a mass, area, wing loading, and terminal velocity close to those of natural H. sosnowskyi mericarps. Results The wind gradient model produced the best results. The first calculations of maximum possible propagule transfer distance by wind using the model and data from weather stations showed that the role of wind as a vector of long-distance dispersal for invasive Heracleum species was strongly underestimated. The published dataset with H. sosnowskyi propagule traits and release heights allows for modeling of the propagules’ dispersal distances by wind at any geographical point within their entire invasion range using data from the closest weather stations. The proposed simple model for the prediction of H. sosnowskyi propagule dispersal by wind may be included in planning processes for managing invasion of this species.

中文翻译：

---

入侵物种 Heracleum sosnowskyi 繁殖体随风散布的简单机械模型

背景入侵物种是全球人类介导的生态系统退化和生态系统服务损害的关键因素之一。繁殖体的传播是植物物种传播的第一阶段，强烈影响生物入侵的动态。因此，入侵物种传播的距离预测对于入侵管理至关重要。Heracleum sosnowskyi 是最危险的入侵物种之一，在东欧有风散布的繁殖体（种子）。本研究为 H. sosnowskyi 繁殖体扩散及其距离开发了一个简单的机械模型，其精度可与经验测量相媲美。方法 我们测量并比较了 H. 来自俄罗斯欧洲两个地理遥远地区的索斯诺夫斯基人口。我们测试了两个简单的机械模型：弹道模型和使用相同人工繁殖体的风梯度模型。人工繁殖体由彩色纸制成，其质量、面积、翼载荷和终端速度与天然 H. sosnowskyi 分果体接近。结果 风梯度模型产生了最好的结果。使用该模型和来自气象站的数据对风的最大可能繁殖体传播距离的首次计算表明，风作为入侵 Heracleum 物种长距离传播的载体的作用被严重低估了。已发布的数据集与 H. sosnowskyi 繁殖体特征和释放高度允许使用最近气象站的数据在其整个入侵范围内的任何地理点通过风对繁殖体的扩散距离进行建模。所提出的用于预测 H. sosnowskyi 繁殖体通过风传播的简单模型可以包含在管理该物种入侵的规划过程中。