Forest ecosystem services (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, biodiversity, and wood products) in many moisture-limited systems in the western USA are being impacted by climate change. Maintaining these services, increasing resiliency, and conserving wildlife habitat will depend on climate change adaptive forest management strategies. Studying the impacts of U.S. Forest Service (USFS) land management plans on long-term carbon cycling and wildlife habitat is imperative for evaluating and implementing adaptive management under climate change. In this study, we present the results of an integrated framework of forest landscape and avifauna niche suitability modeling, applied in the northern Rockies of Idaho (NRI). We report on the interactive effects of climate change, fire, and harvest management on carbon cycling and the distribution of suitable habitat of two avian cavity nesters: Flammulated Owl (Psiloscops flammeolus) and American Three-toed Woodpecker (Picoides dorsalis). The net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) of the NRI was predicted to be negative (carbon source) at the end of the century, primarily because of harvest removals on privately managed lands. This was despite increases in net ecosystem productivity stimulated by harvest. In contrast, NECB of USFS land was positive throughout the century. This was a direct result of the Idaho Panhandle National Forest Land Management Plan (Plan) objectives that were implemented via harvest prescriptions. Under climate warming, compositional shifts in Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii along with increases in mature/old-growth forest stands were in agreement with the Plan's objectives. These and additional species composition shifts also maintained the realized niche of the Flammulated Owl and increased the potential niche of the American Three-toed Woodpecker on USFS land by the end of the century. These projections highlight the potential for the NRI to remain viable wildlife habitat in a warming climate and to sequester carbon. The research demonstrates the benefits of an integration modeling framework as a tool to evaluate multi-objective forest management directives.

中文翻译：

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北落基山脉鸟洞巢穴和碳动态对森林管理和气候变化的响应

美国西部许多水分受限系统中的森林生态系统服务（例如碳和养分循环、生物多样性和木制品）正受到气候变化的影响。维持这些服务、提高复原力和保护野生动物栖息地将取决于气候变化适应性森林管理战略。研究美国林务局 (USFS) 土地管理计划对长期碳循环和野生动物栖息地的影响对于评估和实施气候变化下的适应性管理至关重要。在这项研究中，我们展示了在爱达荷州落基山脉北部 (NRI) 应用的森林景观和鸟类生态位适宜性建模综合框架的结果。我们报告气候变化、火灾、Psiloscops flammeolus ) 和美国三趾啄木鸟 ( Picoides dorsalis )。预计到本世纪末，NRI 的净生态系统碳平衡 (NECB) 为负值（碳源），这主要是由于私人管理土地上的收成移除。尽管收获刺激了净生态系统生产力的提高。相比之下，USFS 土地的 NECB 在整个世纪都是积极的。这是通过收获处方实施的爱达荷州狭长地带国家林地管理计划（计划）目标的直接结果。气候变暖下，黄松和孟氏假松的成分发生变化随着成熟/老林林分的增加，与该计划的目标一致。这些和其他物种组成的变化也保持了火鸮的已实现生态位，并在本世纪末增加了美国三趾啄木鸟在 USFS 土地上的潜在生态位。这些预测突出了 NRI 在气候变暖的情况下保持野生动物栖息地和固碳的潜力。该研究证明了集成建模框架作为评估多目标森林管理指令的工具的好处。