This study seeks to understand how Argentina's energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will co-evolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina's sub-national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder-engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid-century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina's agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km² of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid-century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km² of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina's river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate-to-severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate-induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi-scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human-earth systems.

中文翻译：

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全球变化对阿根廷综合能源-水-土地系统协同演化的影响

本研究旨在了解阿根廷的能源、水和土地 (EWL) 系统将如何在一系列具有代表性的人类和地球系统影响下共同发展，包括社会经济变化、气候变化和气候政策。为了在全球变化的背景下捕捉阿根廷的次国家 EWL 动态，我们将全球变化分析模型与一套一致的、网格化的部门缩减模型相结合，以探索多个利益相关者参与的情景。在各种情况下，阿根廷都有经济机会利用其广阔的土地资源来满足国内和国际对石油（例如大豆）和生物质等作物不断增长的需求。人类（而不是地球）系统在本世纪中叶 EWL 资源使用中产生了最主要的变化。²个额外的耕地和 40% 的水。旨在在阿根廷可以使用 100,000 公里的本世纪中叶项目之后不久在全球实现净零碳排放的气候政策情景²额外的土地（和 65% 以上的水）来种植生物质和其他作物。应对这些国家机遇和挑战的重担可能不成比例地落在阿根廷河流流域的一个子集上。科罗拉多和内格罗盆地可能会经历中度至重度缺水，因为它们同时应对灌溉作物需求的大幅增长和气候导致的自然可用水量下降。阿根廷作为一个可推广的测试平台，证明通过对耦合的人地系统进行综合分析，可以更有效地识别和管理多尺度 EWL 规划挑战。