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May Microcredit Lead to Inclusion?
SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics ( IF 1.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-19 , DOI: 10.1137/20m1342811
Djaffar Lessy , Nahla Dhib , Francine Diener , Marc Diener

SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, Volume 12, Issue 3, Page 898-911, January 2021.
We consider a Markov-Chain model for a Micro-Finance Institution (MFI) borrower who can be in one of four states: Applicant ($A$), Beneficiary ($B^-$ or $B^+$) of a small or a large loan, or Included ($I$) in the regular banking system. Given the transition matrix we compute the equilibrium and deduce the influence of probability parameters on what is profitable to the borrower within breaking-even constraints of the MFI. We give a general theorem on the expected income flow of a Markov Chain with Income (MCI), that we then apply to our model to determine the constraints emerging from Absence of Strategic Default (ASD) requirements. These not only bound the probabilities of success from above but sometimes also from below.


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SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics,第 12 卷,第 3 期,第 898-911 页,2021 年 1 月。
我们考虑可以处于以下四种状态之一的微型金融机构 (MFI) 借款人的马尔可夫链模型: 申请人 ($A $)、小额或大额贷款的受益人($B^-$ 或 $B^+$),或 包含在常规银行系统中($I$)。给定转移矩阵,我们计算均衡并推断概率参数对在 MFI 收支平衡约束内对借款人有利可图的影响。我们给出了一个关于带收入的马尔可夫链 (MCI) 的预期收入流的一般定理,然后我们将其应用于我们的模型以确定因缺乏战略违约 (ASD) 要求而产生的约束。这些不仅限制了自上而下的成功概率,有时也限制了自下而上的成功概率。
更新日期:2021-07-20
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