Previous studies on periodization have led to the view that most athletes fail to peak at major events. These conclusions might be based on definitions of “peak performance” that are too narrow. In this study, a track and field athlete was defined as succeeding in a competition if their outcome was within the acceptable range from the best result of the season. The data are from seven championship finals and semifinals together with 42 Diamond League competitions from the 2010s, altogether 7,087 individual results. All field events and running events up to 400 m were included. The majority of athletes succeeded in major events (67.0% in sprint and 57.5% in field events). Overall, championship finals elicit success rates that are more than 70% higher than the basic level achieved in Diamond League competitions (p < 0.001). Success rates were systematically higher (over 60% higher) for the top three versus other competitors in every race (p < 0.001). When an acceptable range is adopted for the definition of what a successful result is, the majority of athletes manage to peak at the most important competitions. In addition, finishing in the top three in championship finals typically requires a peak performance.

以前关于周期的研究导致了大多数运动员未能在重大赛事中达到顶峰的观点。这些结论可能基于过于狭窄的“峰值性能”定义。在这项研究中，田径运动员被定义为在比赛中取得成功，如果他们的结果在本赛季最佳成绩的可接受范围内。数据来自 2010 年代的 7 场冠军决赛和半决赛以及 42 场钻石联赛的比赛，共计 7,087 场个人成绩。包括所有高达 400 m 的野外项目和跑步项目。大多数运动员在重大赛事中取得成功（短跑 67.0% 和田径项目 57.5%）。总体而言，冠军决赛的成功率比钻石联赛的基本水平高出 70% 以上（p < 0.001)。在每场比赛中，与其他参赛者相比，前三名的成功率系统性地更高（高出 60%）（p  < 0.001）。当采用可接受的范围来定义什么是成功的结果时，大多数运动员都会设法在最重要的比赛中达到顶峰。此外，在锦标赛决赛中进入前三名通常需要出色的表现。