Uneven access to low carbon finance and technology may give rise to energy transition frontrunners and laggards. This article offers a first conceptualization of the risks of an uneven energy transition and its implications for the international political economy and corroborates those with an empirical investigation of elite risk perceptions in the energy industry and finance sector. The multi-method approach combines descriptive survey data with a multinomial logistic regression testing for different expert risk perceptions between sectors, complemented by a set of qualitative interviews. The findings suggest that uneven transition patterns increase the risks of economic instability and decrease the competitiveness of ‘late decarbonizers’. Feedback cycles might impede the latter to catch up, with potentially severe consequences for global equity and international tensions. Countries particularly in the Global South are exposed to higher transition risks than technology-leading economies of the Global North. With this, the paper highlights the importance of relative timing for the implementation of energy transition policies.

低碳金融和技术的不均衡可能会导致能源转型的领跑者和落后者。本文首先对能源转型不平衡的风险及其对国际政治经济的影响进行了概念化，并通过对能源行业和金融部门精英风险认知的实证调查证实了这些观点。多方法方法将描述性调查数据与多项逻辑回归测试相结合，以针对部门之间不同的专家风险感知，并辅以一组定性访谈。研究结果表明，不平衡的转型模式会增加经济不稳定的风险，并降低“后期脱碳者”的竞争力。反馈循环可能会阻碍后者赶上，可能对全球公平和国际紧张局势造成严重后果。与全球北方的技术领先经济体相比，尤其是全球南方国家面临更高的转型风险。因此，本文强调了实施能源转型政策的相对时间的重要性。