ABSTRACT

Extrapolating causal effects is becoming an increasingly important kind of inference in Evidence-Based Policy, development economics, and microeconometrics more generally. While several strategies have been proposed to aid with extrapolation, the existing methodological literature has left our understanding of what extrapolation consists of and what constitutes successful extrapolation underdeveloped. This paper addresses this lack in understanding by offering a novel account of successful extrapolation. Building on existing contributions pertaining to the challenges involved in extrapolation, this more nuanced and comprehensive account seeks to provide tools that facilitate the scrutiny of specific extrapolative inferences and general strategies for extrapolation. Offering such resources is important especially in view of the increasing amounts of real-world decision-making in policy, development, and beyond that involve extrapolation.

摘要

在循证政策、发展经济学和更普遍的微观计量经济学中，推断因果效应正成为一种越来越重要的推论。虽然已经提出了几种策略来帮助外推，但现有的方法论文献让我们对外推的组成和成功的外推的理解不充分。本文通过提供成功外推的新颖说明来解决这种缺乏理解的问题。在与外推所涉及的挑战有关的现有贡献的基础上，这个更加细致和全面的帐户旨在提供有助于审查特定外推推论和一般外推策略的工具。