ABSTRACT

Our study proposes the usage of aggregate earnings to forecast future GDP growth. Using empirical analyses with global quarterly data, we investigate whether aggregate-level profitability drivers, which are components of aggregate earnings, are relevant for forecasting GDP growth. After confirming that aggregate-level profitability drivers are useful for forecasting future GDP growth worldwide, we show that considering the effects of crises improves the forecast model of GDP growth. In addition, we suggest that predicting GDP growth using aggregate-level profitability drivers is relevant for stock valuation in developed countries, but not in emerging countries.

摘要

我们的研究建议使用总收入来预测未来的 GDP 增长。通过对全球季度数据进行实证分析，我们调查了作为总收入组成部分的总体盈利能力驱动因素是否与预测 GDP 增长相关。在确认总体水平的盈利能力驱动因素可用于预测全球未来 GDP 增长之后，我们表明考虑危机的影响可以改进 GDP 增长的预测模型。此外，我们建议使用总体水平的盈利能力驱动因素预测 GDP 增长与发达国家的股票估值相关，但与新兴国家无关。