ABSTRACT

We apply Thirlwall’s law (Thirlwall 1979 Thirlwall, A. P. 1979. “The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of the International Growth Rate Differences.” PSL Quarterly Review 32(128): 45–53 [Google Scholar]) to estimate long run growth in the UK. In particular, we develop a new test allowing for potential structural breaks based on 2SLS to remedy potential weaknesses that existed in previous methods. Our results show the UK had different balance of payments positions over different time periods, and its growth has been constrained over the past two decades. We further elaborate on the pound’s changing role as a reserve currency and how this has affected the UK’s external constraint and growth.

摘要

我们应用瑟尔沃尔定律 (Thirlwall 1979 瑟尔沃尔，A. P。1979 年。“作为国际增长率差异的解释的国际收支约束。” PSL 季评 32(128): 45 – 53 [Google Scholar] ) 来估计英国的长期增长。特别是，我们开发了一种新的测试，允许基于 2SLS 的潜在结构断裂来弥补以前方法中存在的潜在弱点。我们的研究结果表明，英国在不同时期的国际收支状况不同，其增长在过去二十年受到限制。我们进一步阐述了英镑作为储备货币的角色变化以及这如何影响英国的外部约束和增长。