In this paper, a novel predictive model for the seismic vulnerability assessment of old Italian minor historical centres is presented. The proposed methodology is based on the use of eight seismic parameters, which can be easily extracted from the CARTIS form, a new tool for collecting building inventories at the regional scale, promoted by the Italian Civil Protection.

The proposed method takes inspiration from a 14 parameters-based empirical method calibrated by the authors after the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and validated also on the base of the damage scenarios of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake. However, with respect to the original method, the applied procedure is properly modified in order to provide the same results even if the type amd the number of input information is different.

In the first part of the paper, the CARTIS form is presented. Then the proposed methodology is shown and the eight seismic parameters used for its application are discussed. Finally, in order to show the feasibility of the method, it is applied to the case study of Grottazzolina, a small town located in the administrative region of Marche, in Italy, for which fragility curves are provided as a useful tool for predicting the damage scenarios that could potentially occur under different earthquake intensities. The obtained results represent a useful information to address decision-makers’ actions for the seismic risk mitigation of the studied urban centre.

在本文中，提出了一种新的意大利小历史中心地震脆弱性评估的预测模型。提议的方法基于使用八个地震参数，这些参数可以很容易地从 CARTIS 表格中提取，这是一种在区域范围内收集建筑清单的新工具，由意大利民防部门推广。

所提出的方法的灵感来自作者在 2009 年拉奎拉地震后校准的基于 14 个参数的经验方法，并在 2016 年意大利中部地震的破坏情景的基础上进行了验证。然而，相对于原始方法，应用程序被适当地修改以提供相同的结果，即使输入信息的类型和数量不同。

在论文的第一部分，介绍了 CARTIS 形式。然后显示了所提出的方法，并讨论了用于其应用的八个地震参数。最后，为了证明该方法的可行性，将其应用于位于意大利马尔凯行政区的小镇 Grottazzolina 的案例研究，为此提供了脆弱性曲线作为预测损害的有用工具在不同地震强度下可能发生的情景。获得的结果代表了一个有用的信息，可以解决决策者为研究城市中心减轻地震风险所采取的行动。