This paper examines the effects of commodity demand and supply shocks as well as international liquidity shocks on the small open economy of Brazil using an SVAR model. The paper highlights the importance of modelling both types of shocks in the commodity sector. Including only commodity prices overstates the effect of commodity price shocks on the output of Brazil. Commodity demand shocks are much larger than commodity supply shocks in the long run. Including commodity demand and international liquidity also reduces the impact of commodity price shocks on the interest rate made available to Brazil in international capital markets. There is little evidence of Dutch disease for Brazil. However, our results show that Brazil is vulnerable to external shocks.

本文使用 SVAR 模型研究了商品需求和供应冲击以及国际流动性冲击对巴西小型开放经济体的影响。本文强调了对商品部门中两种类型的冲击进行建模的重要性。仅包括大宗商品价格会夸大大宗商品价格冲击对巴西产出的影响。从长远来看，商品需求冲击远大于商品供应冲击。包括大宗商品需求和国际流动性也减少了大宗商品价格冲击对巴西在国际资本市场上可获得的利率的影响。巴西几乎没有荷兰病的证据。然而，我们的结果表明，巴西容易受到外部冲击。