Against the backdrop of rising support for right- and left-wing populist parties in Europe, a long-standing argument has been that the more vulnerable strata of society are deprived by structural economic change as well as increasing social inequality and express their grievances by voting for radical and populist parties. Previous research has tested the thesis either based on cross-sectional data and vague proxies for past income developments or used objective short-term measures of income changes. In this study, we propose a more thorough test using longitudinal data and measures of objective relative deprivation, objective absolute deprivation, and subjective deprivation. Using SOEP data for 2016, our results show little support that those with lower incomes identify more with the populist right-wing AfD in Germany. Furthermore, we find no evidence that objectively falling behind is associated with more support for the AfD and the populist left-wing party die Linke among the less well off. Rather, support for the AfD is highest among the less well-off with stable incomes and the less well-off who perceive their incomes as having been unstable. For die Linke, support is highest among the less well-off who experienced absolute income gains and the less well-off who perceive their incomes as having been upwardly or downwardly mobile.

中文翻译：

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现代化失败者的复仇？收入流动性和对德国右翼和左翼民粹主义政党的支持

在欧洲对右翼和左翼民粹主义政党的支持不断增加的背景下，长期以来的一个论点是，社会中较脆弱的阶层被结构性经济变革和日益加剧的社会不平等所剥夺，并通过投票表达他们的不满。激进和民粹主义政党。先前的研究基于横截面数据和对过去收入发展的模糊代理或使用客观的收入变化短期措施来测试该论文。在这项研究中，我们建议使用纵向数据和客观相对剥夺、客观绝对剥夺和主观剥夺的措施进行更彻底的测试。使用 2016 年的 SOEP 数据，我们的结果显示，低收入者更认同德国民粹主义右翼 AfD 的支持很少。此外，我们没有发现任何证据表明客观上落后与对 AfD 和民粹主义左翼政党的更多支持有关，而 Linke 则属于较不富裕的群体。相反，在收入稳定的不太富裕的人群和认为收入不稳定的不太富裕的人群中，对 AfD 的支持最高。对于林克来说，在经历了绝对收入增长的不太富裕的人群和认为自己的收入向上或向下流动的不太富裕的人群中，支持率最高。