Most dynamic CGE models work with periods of 1 year. This limits their applicability for analysing the effects of shocks that operate over a short period or with different intensities through a year. It is relatively easy to convert an annual CGE model to shorter periodicity, for example a quarter, if we ignore seasonal differences in the pattern of economic activity, but this is not acceptable for agriculture. This paper introduces seasonal factors to the agricultural specification in a detailed quarterly CGE model of the United States. The model is then applied to analyse the effects of the COVID pandemic on U.S. farm industries. Taking account of the general features of the pandemic such as the reduction in household spending, we find that these effects are mild relative to the effects on most other industries. However, agriculture is subject to potential supply-chain disruptions. We apply our quarterly model to analyse two such possibilities: loss of labour at harvest time in Fruit & nut farms, and temporary closure of meat-processing plants. We find that these disruptions are unlikely to cause noticeable reductions in the supply of food products to U.S. households.

中文翻译：

---

在季度 CGE 模型中应对季节性：COVID-19 和美国农业*

大多数动态 CGE 模型的工作周期为 1 年。这限制了它们在分析短期内或一年内不同强度的冲击的影响方面的适用性。如果我们忽略经济活动模式的季节性差异，将年度 CGE 模型转换为较短的周期（例如季度）相对容易，但这对农业来说是不可接受的。本文将季节性因素引入美国详细的季度 CGE 模型中的农业规范。然后应用该模型来分析 COVID 大流行对美国农业的影响。考虑到大流行的一般特征，例如家庭支出减少，我们发现这些影响相对于对大多数其他行业的影响是温和的。然而，农业可能会受到供应链中断的影响。我们应用我们的季度模型来分析两种这样的可能性：水果和坚果农场在收获时的劳动力损失，以及肉类加工厂的暂时关闭。我们发现这些中断不太可能导致美国家庭的食品供应明显减少。