Phenotypic plasticity in heterogeneous environments can provide tight environment-phenotype matching. However, the prerequisite is a reliable environmental cue(s) that enables organisms to use current environmental information to induce the development of a phenotype with high fitness in a forthcoming environment. Here, we quantify predictability in the timing of precipitation and temperature change to examine how this is associated with seasonal polyphenism in tropical Mycalesina butterflies. Seasonal precipitation in the tropics typically results in distinct selective environments, the wet and dry seasons, and changes in temperature can be a major environmental cue. We sampled communities of Mycalesina butterflies from two seasonal locations and one aseasonal location. Quantifying environmental predictability using wavelet analysis and Colwell's indices confirmed a strong periodicity of precipitation over a 12-month period at both seasonal locations compared to the aseasonal one. However, temperature seasonality and periodicity differed between the two seasonal locations. We further show that: (a) most females from both seasonal locations synchronize their reproduction with the seasons by breeding in the wet season but arresting reproduction in the dry season. In contrast, all species breed throughout the year in the aseasonal location and (b) species from the seasonal locations, but not those from the aseasonal location, exhibited polyphenism in wing pattern traits (eyespot size). We conclude that seasonal precipitation and its predictability are primary factors shaping the evolution of polyphenism in Mycalesina butterflies, and populations or species secondarily evolve local adaptations for cue use that depend on the local variation in the environment.

中文翻译：

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气候时间变化的可预测性和热带蝴蝶群落季节性多态性的演变。

异质环境中的表型可塑性可以提供紧密的环境-表型匹配。然而，先决条件是可靠的环境线索，使生物体能够使用当前的环境信息来诱导在即将到来的环境中具有高适应性的表型的发展。在这里，我们量化了降水时间和温度变化的可预测性，以研究这与热带 Mycalesina 蝴蝶的季节性多色性有何关联。热带地区的季节性降水通常会导致不同的选择性环境、雨季和旱季，温度的变化可能是一个主要的环境线索。我们从两个季节性地点和一个非季节性地点对 Mycalesina 蝴蝶群落进行了采样。使用小波分析和 Colwell 指数量化环境可预测性证实，与非季节性地点相比，两个季节性地点在 12 个月内的降水具有很强的周期性。然而，两个季节性地点之间的温度季节性和周期性不同。我们进一步表明：（a）来自两个季节性地点的大多数雌性通过在雨季繁殖但在旱季停止繁殖来使它们的繁殖与季节同步。相比之下，所有物种全年都在非季节性地点繁殖，并且（b）来自季节性地点的物种，但不是来自非季节性地点的物种，在翼型特征（眼斑大小）方面表现出多色性。