Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation,Meteorological Applications

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Teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere represented by ECMWF and NCEP S2S project models and influences on South America precipitation
Meteorological Applications ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-18 , DOI: 10.1002/met.2011
Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti ₁ , Naurinete J. C. Barreto ₁ , Mariano S. Alvarez _{2,

3,

4} , Marisol Osman _{2,

3,

4} , Caio A. S. Coelho ₁

Affiliation

Precipitation predictions in the sub-seasonal timescale are very important for several sectors such as agriculture and energy in regions of South America that are very much affected by precipitation extremes, both excess and lack of rain. The aim of the present study is to investigate the ability of two S2S project models (ECMWF and NCEP) to detect the Southern Hemisphere teleconnections in model hindcasts and the associated anomalous precipitation over South America. The period of analyses is 1999–2010 for the austral summer season (December–January–February). Both models represented adequately the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) pattern in predictions up to 4 weeks ahead and the Pacific South America (PSA) pattern up to 3 weeks. Atmospheric variables of observed extreme cases of SAM were well predicted by the two models, 2 and 3 weeks in advance. The models predicted well atmospheric variables in observed extreme cases of PSA, 2 weeks in advance and with less intensity in the third week. Precipitation anomaly signals associated with these modes were well predicted 2 weeks in advance, although with different intensities. The good ability of the models hindcast in predicting teleconnection patterns and precipitation anomalies over South America provides more confidence to use predictions at sub-seasonal timescale.

中文翻译：

以ECMWF和NCEP S2S项目模型为代表的南半球遥相关模式及其对南美降水的影响

亚季节时间尺度的降水预测对于南美洲地区的农业和能源等几个部门非常重要，这些部门受到极端降水（降雨过多和降雨不足）的影响很大。本研究的目的是调查两个 S2S 项目模型（ECMWF 和 NCEP）在模型后报中检测南半球遥相关和南美洲相关异常降水的能力。南方夏季（12 月-1 月-2 月）的分析期为 1999-2010 年。两种模型都充分代表了最多 4 周前预测的南部环形模式 (SAM) 模式和最多 3 周的南美洲太平洋 (PSA) 模式。两个模型提前 2 周和 3 周很好地预测了观察到的 SAM 极端情况的大气变量。这些模型在观察到的 PSA 极端情况下预测了良好的大气变量，提前 2 周，第三周强度较小。与这些模式相关的降水异常信号提前 2 周得到了很好的预测，尽管强度不同。模型在预测南美洲遥相关模式和降水异常方面的良好能力为在次季节时间尺度上使用预测提供了更大的信心。

更新日期：2021-07-19

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