With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980-2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.

中文翻译：

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不仅仅是后来，而是更少：北欧国家队列生育力的新趋势。

瑞典、芬兰、挪威、丹麦和冰岛等北欧国家具有历史上相似的高且稳定的队列生育率和高水平的性别平等模式，被视为人口行为的先行者。此外，北欧的生育趋势强烈影响了生育理论。然而，从 2010 年左右开始，在许多生育率相对较高的国家，生育率下降的时期在北欧国家尤为明显，这引发了北欧队列生育率是否也会下降并偏离其历史稳定模式的问题。我们使用北欧国家的统一数据，全面描述了这一时期的衰退，并分析了它在多大程度上归因于速度或量子效应。两个关键结果脱颖而出。第一的，下降主要归因于头胎，但从 15 岁到 30 多岁的所有年龄段都可以观察到。这与之前的趋势相反，在 1980-2010 年期间，这些国家 30 年代初的生育率相对稳定地上升。其次，节奏只能解释部分下降。预测表明，北欧队列的平均生育率将从 1970 年队列的 2 个孩子下降到 1980 年代末队列的约 1.8 个孩子。芬兰在较低的预期队列生育率（低于 1.6）方面与其他国家不同，丹麦和瑞典在较慢的队列生育率下降方面与芬兰、冰岛和挪威不同。这些研究结果表明，北欧高生育率和稳定生育率模型的概念化可能需要修改。