This paper constructs various measures of domestic and global uncertainty and provides a comprehensive study of their impacts on the Thai economy. Based on a small open economy VAR, global uncertainty delivers deeper and more long-lasting effects when compared to within-country ones. In addition, we find that uncertainty shocks first generate sudden and large declines for stock prices and foreign portfolio investment, before gradually affecting the real economy through investment and trade channels. There is also meaningful heterogeneity among different types of domestic uncertainty. While financial uncertainty matters most for the Thai economy overall, consumption demand largely responds to macroeconomic uncertainty, while economic policy and political uncertainty generates the most persistent effects on investment. Furthermore, fiscal policy uncertainty is a key driver of trade flows while monetary policy uncertainty plays an important role for capital markets.

中文翻译：

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新兴市场经济的不确定性：来自泰国的证据。

本文构建了各种衡量国内和全球不确定性的指标，并全面研究了它们对泰国经济的影响。基于小型开放经济 VAR，与国内不确定性相比，全球不确定性会产生更深、更持久的影响。此外，我们发现，不确定性冲击首先导致股价和境外证券投资突然大幅下跌，然后通过投资和贸易渠道逐步影响实体经济。不同类型的国内不确定性之间也存在有意义的异质性。虽然金融不确定性对泰国经济整体而言最为重要，但消费需求在很大程度上应对宏观经济的不确定性，而经济政策和政治不确定性对投资的影响最为持久。此外，