We examine the effects of federal sanctions imposed on for-profit institutions in the 1990s. Using county-level variation in the timing and magnitude of sanctions linked to student loan default rates, we estimate that sanctioned for-profits experience a 68 percent decrease in annual enrollment following sanction receipt. Enrollment losses due to for-profit sanctions are 60–70 percent offset by increased enrollment within local community colleges, where students are less likely to default on federal student loans. Conversely, for-profit sanctions decrease enrollment in local unsanctioned for-profit competitors, likely due to improved information about local options and reputational spillovers. Overall, market enrollment declines by 2 percent.

中文翻译：

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当营利性大学失去联邦援助时，学生会去哪里？

我们研究了 1990 年代联邦制裁对营利性机构的影响。使用与学生贷款违约率相关的制裁时间和幅度的县级差异，我们估计受制裁的营利机构在收到制裁后的年入学率下降了 68%。由于营利性制裁造成的入学损失被当地社区大学入学人数的增加抵消了 60-70%，在那里学生不太可能拖欠联邦学生贷款。相反，营利性制裁减少了当地未经批准的营利性竞争对手的入学率，这可能是由于有关当地选择和声誉溢出的信息得到改善。总体而言，市场入学率下降了 2%。