ABSTRACT Two cohorts of Likert scale risk data were subjected to rigorous principal component analysis to simplify the participants’ risk rankings. This improves methodologically on the first Karoo risk analysis. More than 80% of the items and two-thirds of the participants overlap in these datasets, which made it possible to study the stability of these perceptions over the four years that elapsed between the surveys. Two-thirds of the items were factorable and the four common factors identified in the first cohort all persisted in the second cohort, which indicates stability. The four items added to the second survey created the opportunity to study how emerging structures differ when the lists change. The principal component analysis conducted on the longer list identified a new common concern about growing government control over private enterprise that came to light as a result of adding four extra items. Predation ranked as the number one risk in both surveys followed by drought. Labour and security were middling risks, market access a low risk and a lack of support from the local cooperative no risk at all.

中文翻译：

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农民的风险认知有多稳定？对卡鲁一个社区的后续研究

摘要 对两组李克特量表风险数据进行了严格的主成分分析，以简化参与者的风险排名。这在第一次 Karoo 风险分析的方法论上有所改进。超过 80% 的项目和三分之二的参与者在这些数据集中重叠，这使得研究这些看法在两次调查之间经过的四年中的稳定性成为可能。三分之二的项目是可分解的，第一个队列中确定的四个共同因素在第二个队列中都存在，这表明稳定性。添加到第二次调查的四个项目创造了机会来研究当列表改变时新兴结构如何不同。对较长清单进行的主成分分析确定了一个新的共同担忧，即由于增加了四个额外项目，政府对私营企业的控制日益增强。在两次调查中，捕食都被列为第一大风险，其次是干旱。劳动保障风险中等，市场准入风险低，缺乏当地合作社支持，完全没有风险。