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Evaluating 24/7 Sobriety Program participant reoffense risk
Journal of Safety Research ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-17 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2021.06.012
Kimberly Vachal 1 , Shantanu Awasthi 2 , Ihsan Ullah Khan 1 , Yun Zhou 1 , Bong-Jin Choi 3 , Seguy Tchakounte-Wakem 1
Affiliation  

Objective: Our study investigated risk factors in survival among a subpopulation of drivers in North Dakota’s 24/7 Sobriety Program. Participants mandated for a second driving-under-the-influence of alcohol (DUI) arrest were studied for a three-year interval that commenced with the start date for a 360-day enrollment. Method: A Stratified Cox regression model was developed to compute the hazard ratios for survival. A subsequent DUI-related offense as event of interest. Relation to the explanatory variable array that could be construed from administrative records were investigated. Results: Older drivers were 6.31 times more likely to reoffend than the younger driver cohort of 18–35-years. The survival curve slope showed the fastest decline in the 361-day to 730-day interval. Neither gender nor residence region was a significant predictor in DUI reoffense over the three-year monitoring interval. Preliminary work suggests reoffense was more likely if an individual had program history prior to this court mandated 360-day term in the 24/7 Sobriety Program for a second DUI. The program experience finding was unexpected but could not be studied in greater detail due to data and resource limitations. Conclusions: Administrative records access created a novel opportunity to explore an evolving impaired driving prevention strategy that has shown early promise. Individual driver survival in and after the 24/7 Sobriety Program was studied for three-years. Findings show age, post-program time interval, and possibly program history as areas to explore to improve survival rates. Driver DUI offense were most common shortly after program completion. Although limited to a single state, findings increase knowledge for refining strategies designed to impact driver subpopulations at higher risk for reoffense.



中文翻译:

评估 24/7 清醒计划参与者的再犯罪风险

目标:我们的研究调查了北达科他州 24/7 清醒计划中驾驶员亚群的生存风险因素。从 360 天注册的开始日期开始,对被要求进行第二次酒后驾驶 (DUI) 逮捕的参与者进行了为期三年的研究。方法:开发了分层 Cox 回归模型来计算生存风险比。后续与 DUI 相关的犯罪作为关注事件。调查了与可以从行政记录中解释的解释变量数组的关系。结果:与 18 至 35 岁的年轻司机群体相比,老年司机再次犯罪的可能性是其 6.31 倍。生存曲线斜率在 361 天到 730 天的区间内下降最快。在三年的监测间隔内,性别和居住地区都不是酒后驾车再犯的重要预测因素。初步工作表明,如果一个人在本法院在 24/7 清醒计划中为第二次酒后驾车规定 360 天期限之前有计划历史,则更有可能再次犯罪。项目经验发现出乎意料,但由于数据和资源限制,无法进行更详细的研究。结论:访问行政记录创造了一个新的机会,可以探索一个不断发展的受损驾驶预防策略,该策略已显示出早期的前景。对 24/7 清醒计划期间和之后的个体司机生存情况进行了为期三年的研究。调查结果显示年龄、项目后时间间隔和可能的项目历史作为可以提高生存率的探索领域。程序完成后不久,驾驶员 DUI 犯罪最为常见。尽管仅限于单个州,但研究结果增加了对旨在影响再犯罪风险较高的驾驶员亚群的改进策略的了解。

更新日期:2021-08-15
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