Since COVID-19 broke out, there has been renewed interest in understanding the economic and social dynamics of historical and more recent epidemics and pandemics, from the plagues of Antiquity to modern-day outbreaks like Ebola. These events can have significant impacts on the interplay between poverty and social cohesion, i.e. how different groups in society interact and cooperate to survive and prosper. To that effect, this paper provides a theory-driven overview of how social responses to past epidemics and pandemics were determined by the epidemiological and non-epidemiological characteristics of these outbreaks, with a particular focus on the conditions giving rise to scapegoating and persecution of minority groups, including migrants. We discuss existing theories as well as historical and quantitative studies, and highlight the cases where epidemics and pandemics may lead to milder or more severe forms of scapegoating. Finally, we conclude with a summary of priorities for future research on epidemics, pandemics and social conflict and discuss the possible effects and policy implications of COVID-19.

自 COVID-19 爆发以来，人们对了解历史和最近的流行病和大流行病（从古代瘟疫到现代埃博拉病毒等疫情）的经济和社会动态产生了新的兴趣。这些事件可能对贫困与社会凝聚力之间的相互作用产生重大影响，即社会中不同群体如何互动和合作以生存和繁荣。为此，本文提供了理论驱动的概述，说明社会对过去流行病和大流行病的反应是如何由这些疫情的流行病学和非流行病学特征决定的，特别关注导致少数群体成为替罪羊和迫害的条件群体，包括移民。我们讨论现有理论以及历史和定量研究，并强调流行病和大流行可能导致更温和或更严重形式的替罪羊的情况。最后，我们总结了未来流行病、流行病和社会冲突研究的重点，并讨论了 COVID-19 的可能影响和政策影响。