It is challenging to estimate how the regional climate will be shifted under future global warming. To reduce the potential risk of regional climate shift under future climates, examining the change in climate features over Asia is important, as approximately 60% of the world's population resides there. In this study, climate shifts are assessed over the Asian monsoon region under global mean temperature warming targets from 1.5°C to 5.0°C above preindustrial (PI) levels based on different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Global warming impacts the individual climate variables, and consequently, it impacts the regional climate features across the Asian region. Temperature change patterns are more dominant contributors to the spatial extent and magnitude of climate shifts than precipitation change patterns. Changes in regional climates show different behaviors according to the degree of global warming rather than the type of SSP scenario. Climate shifts are intensified under a higher level of global warming that is above the PI levels. The largest climate shifts in this region are shown under global warming of 5.0°C based on the SSP5-8.5 scenario, especially in current polar climate zones. Future change patterns in individual climate zone can differ. Regions with tropical climates and arid climates are likely to be expanded, whereas some regions with warm temperate climates, cold climates, and polar climates are likely to shrink under global warming conditions. Therefore, this study supports the necessity of mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and establishing an adaptation plan for future global warming conditions.

中文翻译：

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基于CMIP6预测的全球变暖对亚洲气候带变化的影响

估计未来全球变暖下区域气候将如何变化具有挑战性。为了降低未来气候下区域气候变化的潜在风险，研究亚洲气候特征的变化非常重要，因为全球约有 60% 的人口居住在那里。在这项研究中，根据不同的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 情景，在全球平均温度变暖目标从工业化前 (PI) 水平以上 1.5°C 到 5.0°C 的情况下，评估了亚洲季风区的气候变化。全球变暖影响单个气候变量，从而影响整个亚洲地区的区域气候特征。与降水变化模式相比，温度变化模式对气候变化的空间范围和幅度的影响更大。根据全球变暖的程度而不是SSP情景的类型，区域气候的变化表现出不同的行为。在高于 PI 水平的更高水平的全球变暖下，气候变化加剧。根据 SSP5-8.5 情景，在全球升温 5.0°C 的情况下，该地区的气候变化最大，尤其是在当前的极地气候区。各个气候区的未来变化模式可能会有所不同。热带气候和干旱气候的地区可能会扩大，而一些暖温带气候、寒冷气候和极地气候的地区在全球变暖的情况下可能会缩小。因此，本研究支持减少温室气体 (GHG) 排放并为未来全球变暖状况制定适应计划的必要性。