Can shocks to one generation propagate to the next? To answer this question, we study how the Vietnam draft lottery affected the next generation's labor market. Using the universe of federal tax returns, we link fathers from draft cohorts to their sons' outcomes and find that sons of fathers randomly called by the draft 1) have lower earnings and labor force participation than their peers, and 2) are more likely to volunteer for military service. These findings highlight the strong role family plays in human capital development and occupational choice. More generally, our results provide sound evidence that malleable aspects of a parent's life course can influence children's labor market outcomes and that policies that only directly alter the circumstances of one generation can have important long-run effects on the next.

中文翻译：

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不幸的儿子：越南抽签对下一代劳动力市场的影响

对一代人的冲击能否传播到下一代？为了回答这个问题，我们研究了越南抽签对下一代劳动力市场的影响。使用联邦纳税申报表的范围，我们将选秀队列中的父亲与其儿子的结果联系起来，发现被选秀随机召集的父亲的儿子 1) 比同龄人的收入和劳动力参与率低，2) 更有可能志愿服兵役。这些发现突出了家庭在人力资本发展和职业选择中的重要作用。更一般地说，我们的结果提供了可靠的证据，表明父母生命历程的可塑性方面可以影响儿童的劳动力市场结果，并且仅直接改变一代人境遇的政策会对下一代产生重要的长期影响。