We study how changes in energy input costs for US manufacturers affect the relative welfare of manufacturing producers and consumers (i.e., incidence). We also develop a methodology to estimate the incidence of input taxes that accounts for incomplete pass-through, imperfect competition, and substitution among inputs. For the several industries we study, 70 percent of energy price-driven changes in input costs get passed through to consumers in the short to medium run. The share of the welfare cost that consumers bear is 25–75 percent smaller (and the share producers bear is larger) than models featuring complete pass-through and perfect competition would suggest.

中文翻译：

---

美国制造业的能源成本转嫁：碳税的估计和影响

我们研究了美国制造商能源投入成本的变化如何影响制造商和消费者的相对福利（即发生率）。我们还开发了一种方法来估计因不完全传递、不完全竞争和投入之间的替代而引起的进项税的发生率。对于我们研究的几个行业，能源价格驱动的投入成本变化的 70% 在中短期内会传递给消费者。消费者承担的福利成本份额比完全传递和完全竞争的模型所建议的要小 25-75%（生产者承担的份额更大）。