ABSTRACT Why did India launch and later withdraw from the exercise in coercive diplomacy – Operation Parakram – against Pakistan in response to the attack on India’s Parliament by terrorists based in that country? This paper marshals factors operating at the systemic, state and individual/small-group levels of analysis to show that, despite the paucity of evidence on decisionmaking of the kind required for an effective foreign policy analysis (FPA) approach, a reasonably clear picture can be developed. It combines deductive logic relating to state behavior in a nuclearized environment with the limited empirical evidence available to show that India never intended to go to war and that the operation was essentially a bluff that, having eventually reached a dead end, was called off.

中文翻译：

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印度的巴基斯坦问题：重新审视Parakram行动

摘要 印度为何发起并随后退出针对巴基斯坦的强制外交演习——Parakram 行动——以回应驻扎在该国的恐怖分子对印度议会的袭击？本文整理了在系统、国家和个人/小组分析层面上运行的因素，以表明，尽管缺乏有效外交政策分析 (FPA) 方法所需的那种决策的证据，但合理清晰的图景可以被开发。它结合了与核化环境中的国家行为相关的演绎逻辑和有限的经验证据，表明印度从未打算开战，而且这次行动本质上是虚张声势，最终走到了死胡同，被取消了。